【中部】沖縄国際大学経済学部の友知政樹教授は２２日までに、米軍嘉手納基地が返還された場合の県経済への効果について、跡地利用が進んで生み出される「直接経済効果」が年間約１兆４６００億円になるとの試算をまとめた。県が「嘉手納より南」の基地返還に伴う経済効果の算定で用いた計算式を当てはめて試算した。経費などを差し引いた「粗付加価値額」は約８２２０億円になるとした。
県は「嘉手納より南」の基地返還後の経済効果について、リゾートコンベンション産業や文化産業などを整備することを前提に計算した。友知教授はこの式を嘉手納基地に当てはめ、基地が所在する３市町それぞれの地価と掛け合わせた。
３市町は嘉手納基地の具体的な跡地利用計画を策定していない。
そのため、沖縄市、嘉手納町は県が試算したキャンプ瑞慶覧の返還効果（１ヘクタール＝６・９８億円）、北谷町はキャンプ桑江の返還効果（同４・９５億円）を適用。１ヘクタール当たりの返還効果の数値と地価換算係数、嘉手納基地の面積１９８５ヘクタール（沖縄市７４２・５ヘクタール、嘉手納町８７９ヘクタール、北谷町３６３・５ヘクタール）を掛けて自治体ごとに経済効果を出し、これを足し合わせた。
嘉手納弾薬庫は林間地域で跡地利用の効果が限定的と考え、積算には含めていない。
友知教授は「あくまで基地問題は平和や人権の問題であり、経済効果があるから基地を返還した方がいいという論理ではない」と指摘した上で、「基地の存在による経済損失は行政が主体になって数値を出して議論をリードしてほしい。ＳＡＣＯ合意以外の基地も『返ってこない』と決めつけず算出してみることが大事だ」と強調した。
友知教授はこれまでに「全基地撤去および全補助金撤廃後の琉球（沖縄）経済に関する一考察」として、県内の米軍施設と自衛隊基地を含めた試算を論文で発表している。
全基地撤去により３兆８４２６億円の直接経済効果が生み出されると算出し、そのうちＳＡＣＯで返還合意されている基地以外が２兆９５２６億円としている。
1.5 trillion-yen benefit expected from return of Kadena
February 23, 2017 Ryukyu ShimpoOn February 22, Professor Masaki Tomochi from the Department of Economics at Okinawa International University presented his trial calculations regarding the economic benefit to Okinawa if the U.S. military’s Kadena Air Base is returned. According to his calculations, “a direct economic benefit” of approximately 1.46 trillion-yen a year will be generated by the site being redeveloped. His calculations are based on the equations used by the Okinawa prefecture for estimating the economic benefits from the base being returned for “(areas) south of Kadena.” The “gross value added” after subtracting the expenses is approximately 822 billion-yen.
The prefecture made the calculations assuming that the resort, convention, and cultural industries would expand into “(areas) south of Kadena” after the base is returned. Professor Tomochi applied these equations to Kadena Air Base and multiplied that number by the price of land for the three municipalities in which the base is located.
The three municipalities have not come up with concrete plans for redeveloping the area where Kadena Air Base is currently located. Because of this, Okinawa City and Kadena Town have used 69.8 billion-yen per hectare for Camp Foster and Chatan has used 49.5 billion-yen per hectare for Camp Lester for their calculations. The values were provided by the prefecture. Kadena Air Base covers 1,985 hectares: 742.5 hectares from Okinawa City, 879 hectares from Kadena Town, and 363.5 hectares from Chatan. Multiplying the economic benefits per hectare, land price scale, and the three areas results in the economic benefit for each of the municipalities. Adding these numbers together gives the economic benefit from having Kadena Air Base returned. The benefits of redeveloping the Kadena Ammunition Storage Area, located in a forested area, were deemed limited. Therefore, it was not included in the calculations.
Professor Tomochi pointed out, “While our calculations show economic incentives for having the base returned, this was not our intention because in the end, the base issue is a peace and human rights issue.” He also emphasized, “(We) would like the government to become the main body in calculating the economic loss incurred from the base and to lead discussions. Even for the bases that are not part of the Special Action Committee on Facilities and Areas in Okinawa (SACO) agreement, it is important to estimate numbers for them and to not assume from the start that they ‘will not come back.’”
Up until now, Professor Tomochi has presented paper(s) on trial calculations including the military facilities within Okinawa and the Self-Defense Force bases as a part of “an examination of the Ryukyu (Okinawa) economy after all bases are removed and all subsidies were abolished.”
According to his calculations, a direct economic benefit of 3,842,600,000,000-yen will result from all bases being removed. Of that, 2,952,600,000-yen is for bases that are not part of the return agreement, which is a part of the SACO.
(English translation by T&CT and Chelsea Ashimine)
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